Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 21/07, 17:00
Prediction: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan
Prediction summary
Winner
Yosuke Watanuki
Andre Ilagan
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Yosuke Watanuki
6-4 (W-L)
Andre Ilagan
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yosuke Watanuki
1–0
Andre Ilagan
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yosuke Watanuki 1546 · Andre Ilagan 1529
| Yosuke Watanuki | Andre Ilagan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Yosuke Watanuki dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 44.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Yosuke Watanuki 1–0 Andre Ilagan (1).
Statistics
| Yosuke Watanuki | Andre Ilagan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-9.9 | 12.7-12.8 |
| Aces | 8.8 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 62.4% |
| Break % | 44.7% | 37.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.3
Over 21.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Yosuke Watanuki 1 – 0 Andre Ilagan (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yosuke Watanuki 1–0 Andre Ilagan
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/26 Challenger Cary | 2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yosuke Watanuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 08/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Federico Cina French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/03 | Florian Broska Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/03 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/02 | Sebastian Ofner Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Andre Ilagan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 09/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Connor Plunkett Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 07/06 | Adam Walton Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 04/06 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan?
Our model gives 57% to Yosuke Watanuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.