Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 21/07, 17:00
Prediction: Fajing Sun vs Mees Rottgering
Prediction summary
Winner
Fajing Sun
Mees Rottgering
Estimated games
20.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Fajing Sun
2-8 (W-L)
Mees Rottgering
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fajing Sun 1431 · Mees Rottgering 1590
| Fajing Sun | Mees Rottgering | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mees Rottgering (rating 1431 vs 1590).
- Mees Rottgering is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Fajing Sun | Mees Rottgering | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.7 | 1.5-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-12.7 | 11.1-7 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.8% | 74.8% |
| Break % | 46% | 51% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · -1
Over 21.5: 43% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 57% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fajing Sun
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Ozan Baris Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Jay Friend Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Dakotah Bobo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/05 | Jesper De Jong French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 11/05 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 06/05 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 05/05 | Alex Bolt Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Mees Rottgering
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Timo Legout M25 Louisville |
1-0 | 7-5 | W |
| 17/07 | Evan Bynoe M25 Louisville |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Lev Seidman M25 Louisville |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/07 | Russell Lokko M25 Louisville |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/07 | Aidan Kim M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Billy Suarez M25 Dallas |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 16/06 | Peter Buldorini Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Benjamin Bonzi ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 27/04 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/04 | Jerry Roddick M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fajing Sun vs Mees Rottgering?
Our model gives 62% to Mees Rottgering, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.