Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 21/07, 17:00
Prediction: Nicolas Arseneault vs Keegan Rice
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Arseneault
Keegan Rice
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Arseneault
4-6 (W-L)
Keegan Rice
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Arseneault 1448 · Keegan Rice 1515
| Nicolas Arseneault | Keegan Rice | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Keegan Rice (rating 1448 vs 1515).
- Keegan Rice is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Nicolas Arseneault | Keegan Rice | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 25% (8) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-12.5 | 12.2-10.9 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 64.4% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 33.6% | 52.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +1.7
Over 20.5: 62% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 38% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Liam Draxl M25 Laval |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Benjamin Willwerth M25 Laval |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Christian Langmo M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Jonah Braswell M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Thanaphat Boosarawongse M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 03/06 | Oliver Bonding M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 24/05 | Henry Searle Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/01 | Luca Pow M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-11 | L |
Keegan Rice
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Alexander Rozin Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/07 | Kenta Miyoshi M25 Laval |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/07 | Jay Friend M25 Laval |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Liam Draxl M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Matthew Thomson M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Dan Martin M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/11 | Dan Martin Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 11/11 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 26/10 | Samir Banerjee Challenger Charlottesville · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Arseneault vs Keegan Rice?
Our model gives 61% to Keegan Rice, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.