Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 21/07, 17:00
Prediction: Rio Noguchi vs Braden Shick
Prediction summary
Winner
Rio Noguchi
Braden Shick
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rio Noguchi
3-7 (W-L)
Braden Shick
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rio Noguchi 1501 · Braden Shick 1565
| Rio Noguchi | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Braden Shick (rating 1501 vs 1565).
- Braden Shick is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Rio Noguchi | Braden Shick | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-12.5 | 11.3-10.1 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 60.4% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 49.4% | 43.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 49% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 51% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rio Noguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Luca Nardi Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Clement Tabur Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Hamish Stewart Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 08/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Braden Shick
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/06 | Andrew Fenty M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/06 | William Manning M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/06 | Liam Draxl Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 04/06 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rio Noguchi vs Braden Shick?
Our model gives 54% to Braden Shick, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.