Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 21/07, 17:00
Prediction: Yuta Shimizu vs Liam Broady
Prediction summary
Winner
Yuta Shimizu
Liam Broady
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Yuta Shimizu
6-4 (W-L)
Liam Broady
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yuta Shimizu 1521 · Liam Broady 1481
| Yuta Shimizu | Liam Broady | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yuta Shimizu (rating 1521 vs 1481).
Statistics
| Yuta Shimizu | Liam Broady | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-13.5 | 12.6-12.2 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 37.9% | 34.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +3.5
Over 20.5: 73% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 27% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yuta Shimizu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Ryan Colby M25 Laval |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/06 | Dan Martin Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 03/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 27/05 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
Liam Broady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 10/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/06 | August Holmgren Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Ioannis Xilas Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yuta Shimizu vs Liam Broady?
Our model gives 56% to Liam Broady, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.