Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 21/07, 17:00
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Philip Sekulic
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Philip Sekulic
Estimated games
25.2Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
6-4 (W-L)
Philip Sekulic
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1592 · Philip Sekulic 1514
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Philip Sekulic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shintaro Mochizuki (rating 1592 vs 1514).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Philip Sekulic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 80% (10) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.9-13.7 | 11.4-10.1 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 77.4% | 72.6% |
| Break % | 49.5% | 47.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.2 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4.7
Over 20.5: 79% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 21% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 20-20 | W |
| 01/07 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-21 | W |
| 24/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 14/06 | Michael Zheng Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
Philip Sekulic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 14/07 | Strong Kirchheimer Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Blake Ellis Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 17-20 | L |
| 16/05 | Keegan Smith Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Kriish Tyagi Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/05 | Maximus Jones Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 13/05 | Christopher Papa Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/05 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Bengaluru · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Philip Sekulic?
Our model gives 69% to Shintaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.