Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 19/07, 21:00
Prediction: Alafia Ayeni vs Duncan Chan
Prediction summary
Winner
Alafia Ayeni
Duncan Chan
Estimated games
22.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alafia Ayeni
4-6 (W-L)
Duncan Chan
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alafia Ayeni 1460 · Duncan Chan 1486
| Alafia Ayeni | Duncan Chan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Alafia Ayeni makes many double faults (6.9/match).
Statistics
| Alafia Ayeni | Duncan Chan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (2) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-11.9 | 11.2-11.5 |
| Aces | 8.1 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 6.9 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 73.4% | 69.1% |
| Break % | 33.3% | 37.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.6
Over 21.5: 54% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 46% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alafia Ayeni
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/06 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/05 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Kosice · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Ethan Cook Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/05 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/05 | Mert Naci Turker Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 18/05 | Reda Bennani Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/05 | Imanol Lopez Morillo Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/05 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Duncan Chan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Timo Legout M25 Laval |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Nicola Ion M25 Laval |
2-1 | 11-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Braden Shick M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Ryan Colby M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 12/06 | Ozan Baris M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/06 | Pavle Marinkov M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/06 | Jie Cui M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 16/11 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/11 | Charles Broom Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alafia Ayeni vs Duncan Chan?
Our model gives 55% to Duncan Chan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.