Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 19/07, 18:00
Prediction: Mikael Arseneault vs Pavle Marinkov
Prediction summary
Winner
Mikael Arseneault
Pavle Marinkov
Estimated games
21.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Mikael Arseneault
5-5 (W-L)
Pavle Marinkov
1-9 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mikael Arseneault 1473 · Pavle Marinkov 1438
| Mikael Arseneault | Pavle Marinkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Pavle Marinkov makes many double faults (7.2/match).
Statistics
| Mikael Arseneault | Pavle Marinkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 38% (8) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11 | 8.7-11.8 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 7.2 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 67.8% |
| Break % | 33.6% | 22.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 48% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 52% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mikael Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/07 | Timo Legout M25 Laval |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Niels Peter Van Noord M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Alex Kobelt M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Oliver Ojakaar M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Noah Zamora M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Juan Carlos Fuentes Vasquez M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/11 | Liam Draxl Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 10/11 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Pavle Marinkov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Yibing Wu Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Ronit Karki Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Christian Langmo M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Duncan Chan M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Ryan Colby M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 31/05 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/05 | Justin Boulais Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/04 | Kokoro Isomura M25 Luzhou · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/04 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Wuning · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/04 | Joshua Charlton Challenger Wuning Qual · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mikael Arseneault vs Pavle Marinkov?
Our model gives 55% to Pavle Marinkov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.