Tennis · WTA Rome · 19/07, 18:00
Prediction: Francesca Jones vs Lucia Bronzetti
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Jones
Lucia Bronzetti
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Jones
3-7 (W-L)
Lucia Bronzetti
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Francesca Jones
1–0
Lucia Bronzetti
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Jones 1554 · Lucia Bronzetti 1599
| Francesca Jones | Lucia Bronzetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucia Bronzetti (rating 1554 vs 1599).
- Head-to-head: Francesca Jones 1–0 Lucia Bronzetti (1).
Statistics
| Francesca Jones | Lucia Bronzetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 83% (6) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.5 | 12-10.4 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 2 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 65.4% | 59.1% |
| Break % | 37.7% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
H2H · Francesca Jones 1 – 0 Lucia Bronzetti (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Francesca Jones 1–0 Lucia Bronzetti
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/26 W100 Wiesbaden | 2-1 | 15-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Jones
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Martina Trevisan WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 17/07 | Noma Noha Akugue WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Federica Urgesi WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/07 | Dalila Spiteri WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 07/07 | Alice Rame WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Diane Parry Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Talia Gibson WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 09/06 | Laura Siegemund WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Lucia Bronzetti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Nuria Brancaccio WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 17/07 | Deborah Chiesa WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 16/07 | Teodora Kostovic WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Alessandra Mazzola WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva W100 Aschaffenburg |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Georgina Garcia-Perez W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Lina Gjorcheska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Justina Mikulskyte Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Maddison Inglis Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 14/06 | Katarzyna Kawa WTA Modena · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Jones vs Lucia Bronzetti?
Our model gives 51% to Francesca Jones, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.