Prediction: Nuria Brancaccio vs Julia Riera
Prediction summary
Winner
Nuria Brancaccio
Julia Riera
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Nuria Brancaccio
7-3 (W-L)
Julia Riera
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nuria Brancaccio
2–3
Julia Riera
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nuria Brancaccio 1499 · Julia Riera 1562
| Nuria Brancaccio | Julia Riera | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Julia Riera (rating 1499 vs 1562).
- Nuria Brancaccio dominates on serve: 6.8 aces and 44.3% break avg.
- Julia Riera is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Nuria Brancaccio 2–3 Julia Riera (5).
Statistics
| Nuria Brancaccio | Julia Riera | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-10.4 | 13-10.2 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 58.1% | 65.2% |
| Break % | 44.3% | 49.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
H2H · Nuria Brancaccio 2 – 3 Julia Riera (5)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nuria Brancaccio 2–3 Julia Riera
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/24 WTA San Luis Potosi | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/03/23 ITF W25 Mosquera | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/01/23 WTA Cali | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/01/23 ITF W25 Buenos Aires | 2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 31/08/22 ITF W25 Trieste | 1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nuria Brancaccio
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Eva Vedder WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/07 | Jessica Pieri WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Zhibek Kulambayeva W75 The Hague |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 23/06 | Andrea Lazaro Garcia Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Ekaterine Gorgodze WTA Brescia · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/06 | Lucia Bronzetti WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Victoria Bosio WTA Modena · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/06 | Tatiana Prozorova WTA Foggia · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Kaitlin Quevedo French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Julia Riera
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Danka Kovinic WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Darja Semenistaja WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 10/07 | Ekaterine Gorgodze W100 Aschaffenburg |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Martina Trevisan W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Emily Seibold W100 Aschaffenburg |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Anastasiya Konstantinovna Soboleva W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Ekaterine Gorgodze W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Nuria Parrizas-Diaz W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Elena Ruxandra Bertea W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Fiona Crawley Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nuria Brancaccio vs Julia Riera?
Our model gives 58% to Julia Riera, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.