Tennis · M15 Castelo Branco · 18/07, 14:00
Prediction: Tiago Cacao vs Goncalo Marques
Prediction summary
Winner
Tiago Cacao
Goncalo Marques
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Tiago Cacao
6-4 (W-L)
Goncalo Marques
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Tiago Cacao
0–1
Goncalo Marques
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tiago Cacao 1491 · Goncalo Marques 1525
| Tiago Cacao | Goncalo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Tiago Cacao 0–1 Goncalo Marques (1).
Statistics
| Tiago Cacao | Goncalo Marques | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.3-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.3 | 11.3-9 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 54.6% | 48% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Tiago Cacao 0 – 1 Goncalo Marques (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tiago Cacao 0–1 Goncalo Marques
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/26 M25 Loule | 1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tiago Cacao
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Francisco Rocha M15 Castelo Branco |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 16/07 | Manel Lazaro Juncadella M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 9-4 | W |
| 14/07 | Matthias Uwe Kask M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 02/07 | Joao Dinis Silva M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Karan Singh M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/05 | Goncalo Marques M25 Loule · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/04 | Joao Domingues M25 Quinta do Lago · ~Hard |
1-1 | 11-12 | L |
| 04/04 | Julio Cesar Porras UTR Pro Carvoeiro · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Goncalo Marques
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Iker Urribarrens M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/07 | Samuel De Felipe Garcia M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Joao Domingues M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/07 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Emile Hudd M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Maxwell McKennon M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-0 | 6-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Francisco Rocha M25 Porto |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Jeffrey Fradkin M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Izan Almazan Valiente M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tiago Cacao vs Goncalo Marques?
Our model gives 51% to Tiago Cacao, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.