Tennis · M15 Castelo Branco · 16/07, 12:00
Prediction: Rodrigo Leal vs Pavlos Tsitsipas
Prediction summary
Winner
Rodrigo Leal
Pavlos Tsitsipas
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Rodrigo Leal
6-4 (W-L)
Pavlos Tsitsipas
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rodrigo Leal 1521 · Pavlos Tsitsipas 1530
| Rodrigo Leal | Pavlos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Pavlos Tsitsipas makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Rodrigo Leal | Pavlos Tsitsipas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.8-10 | 12.4-12.1 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 5 |
| 1st serve % | 63.3% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 51% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rodrigo Leal
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Salvador Monteiro M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/07 | Joao Mendes M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Joao Portugal M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Jeffrey Fradkin M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-1 | 8-10 | W |
| 07/05 | Tiago Pereira M25 Loule · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Loule · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/05 | Otso Martikainen M25 Loule · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-12 | W |
| 28/04 | Patrick Schoen M25 Quinta do Lago · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/03 | Edison Ambarzumjan M25 Faro |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Pavlos Tsitsipas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Vasco L Prata M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/07 | Aren Baybars M25 Roda de Bara |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Bryan Hernandez Cortes M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 06/07 | Yeray Andres Pastor M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 11-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Pedro Rodenas M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 01/07 | David Naharro M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Kalin Ivanovski M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 24/06 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Ryan Nijboer M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Peru Bayo M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rodrigo Leal vs Pavlos Tsitsipas?
Our model gives 55% to Pavlos Tsitsipas, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.