Tennis · W15 Brisbane · 17/07, 04:30
Prediction: Alana Subasic vs Belle Thompson
Prediction summary
Winner
Alana Subasic
Belle Thompson
Estimated games
19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alana Subasic
9-1 (W-L)
Belle Thompson
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alana Subasic
2–0
Belle Thompson
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alana Subasic 1575 · Belle Thompson 1522
| Alana Subasic | Belle Thompson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alana Subasic (rating 1575 vs 1522).
- Head-to-head: Alana Subasic 2–0 Belle Thompson (2).
Statistics
| Alana Subasic | Belle Thompson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.4 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-5.5 | 10.2-9.8 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 59.4% |
| Break % | 58.5% | 56.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.5
H2H · Alana Subasic 2 – 0 Belle Thompson (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alana Subasic 2–0 Belle Thompson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/25 ITF W15 Tweed Heads | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/12/23 ITF W25 Papamoa | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alana Subasic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Angel Warang W15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/07 | Mana Kawamura W15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/06 | Duru Soke W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 27/06 | Kateryna Lazarenko W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Deniz Dilek W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Ayline Esina Samardzic W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/06 | Berrak Kocak W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/06 | Adelina Lachinova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 17/06 | Maria Pares Bergnes de las Casas W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Annika Barth W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
Belle Thompson
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Mutsumi Uemura W15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Eva Lopez W15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 29/06 | Caterina Odorizzi W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Mariia Nozdrachova W50 Elvas · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 23/06 | Fangran Tian W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Gabriela M Vancea W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 21/06 | Erika Abraham-Nilsen W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Anna Kubareva W35 Tauste · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Celia Anson Sanchez W35 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Angelina Voloshchuk W50 Guimaraes · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alana Subasic vs Belle Thompson?
Our model gives 67% to Alana Subasic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.