Tennis · Challenger Cordenons · 17/07, 10:00
Prediction: Stefano Napolitano vs Gonzalo Villanueva
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefano Napolitano
Gonzalo Villanueva
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Stefano Napolitano
7-3 (W-L)
Gonzalo Villanueva
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefano Napolitano
2–0
Gonzalo Villanueva
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano Napolitano 1529 · Gonzalo Villanueva 1587
| Stefano Napolitano | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gonzalo Villanueva (rating 1529 vs 1587).
- Head-to-head: Stefano Napolitano 2–0 Gonzalo Villanueva (2).
Statistics
| Stefano Napolitano | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-11.4 | 13.3-9.1 |
| Aces | 11 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 68.1% |
| Break % | 34.3% | 48.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Stefano Napolitano 2 – 0 Gonzalo Villanueva (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefano Napolitano 2–0 Gonzalo Villanueva
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/23 Challenger Verona | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 17/07/23 Challenger Trieste | 2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano Napolitano
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Alex Barrena Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 13/07 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Edward Winter Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Philip Henning Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Alec Beckley Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/05 | Stefan Vujic Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/05 | Alejandro Moro Canas French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 11/05 | Jakub Paul Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Gonzalo Villanueva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/07 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/07 | Giammarco Gandolfi Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/07 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 06/07 | Lorenzo Bocchi Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Jozef Kovalik Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 28/06 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 26/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Matias Soto Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano Napolitano vs Gonzalo Villanueva?
Our model gives 52% to Stefano Napolitano, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.