Tennis · W35 Sao Paulo · 16/07, 19:30
Prediction: Francesca Mattioli vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Mattioli
Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez
Estimated games
19.4
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Mattioli
7-3 (W-L)
Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Mattioli 1555 · Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez 1514
| Francesca Mattioli | Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Francesca Mattioli (rating 1555 vs 1514).
- Note: Francesca Mattioli makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Francesca Mattioli | Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (3) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-7.2 | 11.3-8.8 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.7% | 60.2% |
| Break % | 56.9% | 50.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Mattioli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Pietra Rivoli W35 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Agustina Soto Neira W35 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/07 | Gabriela Carvalho Bettoni W35 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 10/06 | Carolina Alves W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Noelia Zeballos W15 Brasilia |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 04/06 | Maria F Herazo Gonzalez W15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/06 | Camila Markus W15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 25/10 | Vanesa Suarez UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/10 | Alice Otis UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/10 | Alex Ackman UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Isabella Barrera Aguirre W35 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Luciana Perry W50 Columbus |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Theadora Rabman W50 Columbus |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Maya Iyengar W100 Cary · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Hiroko Kuwata W100 Cary · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/06 | Noelia Zeballos W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 11/06 | Maria F Herazo Gonzalez W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-4 | W |
| 11/06 | Camila Markus W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 05/06 | Whitney Osuigwe W100 Sumter · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Bella Payne W100 Sumter · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Mattioli vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez?
Our model gives 54% to Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.