Tennis · M15 Gubbio · 16/07, 10:00
Prediction: Niccolo Ciavarella vs Maximilian Homberg
Prediction summary
Winner
Niccolo Ciavarella
Maximilian Homberg
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Niccolo Ciavarella
3-7 (W-L)
Maximilian Homberg
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niccolo Ciavarella 1407 · Maximilian Homberg 1536
| Niccolo Ciavarella | Maximilian Homberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maximilian Homberg (rating 1407 vs 1536).
- Maximilian Homberg is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Niccolo Ciavarella | Maximilian Homberg | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 11% (9) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.5-1.6 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.4-11.2 | 11-9.6 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 60.1% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 46.6% | 51% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niccolo Ciavarella
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Matteo Sciahbasi M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Federico Arnaboldi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Joaquin Guilleme M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Antonio Caruso M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Alessandro Coccioli M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/05 | Radu Mihai Papoe M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Maximilian Homberg
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Peter Buldorini M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Store |
0-1 | 3-6 | L |
| 26/06 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 25/06 | Mak Mikovic M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Marko Retelj M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/05 | Khumoyun Sultanov M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Bor Artnak M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 28/05 | Alessandro Bellifemine M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Max Pade M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/03 | Andrew Fenty M25 Bakersfield · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niccolo Ciavarella vs Maximilian Homberg?
Our model gives 68% to Maximilian Homberg, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.