Tennis · M15 Gubbio · 16/07, 10:00
Prediction: Marcello Serafini vs Pierluigi Basile
Prediction summary
Winner
Marcello Serafini
Pierluigi Basile
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Marcello Serafini
2-8 (W-L)
Pierluigi Basile
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marcello Serafini 1496 · Pierluigi Basile 1550
| Marcello Serafini | Pierluigi Basile | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pierluigi Basile (rating 1496 vs 1550).
- Note: Marcello Serafini makes many double faults (5.4/match).
Statistics
| Marcello Serafini | Pierluigi Basile | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-13.2 | 12.6-9.7 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 4 |
| Double faults | 5.4 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.9% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 50.3% | 52.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marcello Serafini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Gian Marco Ortenzi M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Leonardo Rossi M15 Lodz |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Louis Larue M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 23/06 | Henry Bernet M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Manuel Mazza M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 04/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Yacoub Makzoume M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 27/05 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Pierluigi Basile
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Gabriele Vulpitta M15 Gubbio |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Elmer Moller Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 08/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 05/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 29/05 | Lucio Ratti M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Oskar Brostrom Poulsen M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 27/05 | Alberto Morolli M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marcello Serafini vs Pierluigi Basile?
Our model gives 72% to Pierluigi Basile, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.