Prediction: Francesca Jones vs Federica Urgesi
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesca Jones
Federica Urgesi
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Francesca Jones
3-7 (W-L)
Federica Urgesi
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesca Jones 1478 · Federica Urgesi 1554
| Francesca Jones | Federica Urgesi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Federica Urgesi (rating 1478 vs 1554).
- Federica Urgesi is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Francesca Jones makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Francesca Jones | Federica Urgesi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.3 | 12.2-9.1 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 61.6% | 59.2% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 47.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesca Jones
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Dalila Spiteri WTA Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 07/07 | Alice Rame WTA Contrexeville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Diane Parry Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Talia Gibson WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 09/06 | Laura Siegemund WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Marie Bouzkova French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/05 | Beatriz Haddad Maia French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 19/05 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar WTA Rabat · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
Federica Urgesi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Yelyzaveta Kotliar WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/07 | Arantxa Rus W75 The Hague |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Lucija Ciric Bagaric W75 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Katerina Tsygourova W35 Tarvisio · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Modena · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 07/06 | Alessandra Mazzola W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 06/06 | Deborah Chiesa W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/06 | Marta Lombardini W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/06 | Gabriela Ce W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 02/06 | Vivian Wolff W75 Caserta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesca Jones vs Federica Urgesi?
Our model gives 58% to Francesca Jones, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.