Tennis · M15 Castelo Branco · 15/07, 10:00
Prediction: Goncalo Marques vs Joao Domingues
Prediction summary
Winner
Goncalo Marques
Joao Domingues
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Goncalo Marques
6-4 (W-L)
Joao Domingues
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Goncalo Marques
0–1
Joao Domingues
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Goncalo Marques 1504 · Joao Domingues 1553
| Goncalo Marques | Joao Domingues | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Joao Domingues (rating 1504 vs 1553).
- Head-to-head: Goncalo Marques 0–1 Joao Domingues (1).
Statistics
| Goncalo Marques | Joao Domingues | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10 | 12-11.8 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 48.9% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Goncalo Marques 0 – 1 Joao Domingues (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Goncalo Marques 0–1 Joao Domingues
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 M25 Loule | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Goncalo Marques
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Sebastian Dominko M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Emile Hudd M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Maxwell McKennon M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-0 | 6-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Francisco Rocha M25 Porto |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Jeffrey Fradkin M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Thijs Boogaard M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Izan Almazan Valiente M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Anas Bennour Dit Sahli M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/05 | Kaipo Marshall M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/05 | Hugo Coquelin M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-9 | L |
Joao Domingues
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Tiago Torres M25 Porto |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Maxwell McKennon M25 Porto |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 19/06 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Tiago Cacao M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/06 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/06 | Emile Hudd M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 11/06 | Carles Hernandez M25 Martos · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Goncalo Marques vs Joao Domingues?
Our model gives 61% to Joao Domingues, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.