Tennis · M15 Castelo Branco · 14/07, 10:00
Prediction: Diogo Morais vs Francisco Faria
Prediction summary
Winner
Diogo Morais
Francisco Faria
Estimated games
18.9
Recent form · 10 last
Diogo Morais
5-5 (W-L)
Francisco Faria
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Diogo Morais 1497 · Francisco Faria 1523
| Diogo Morais | Francisco Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Diogo Morais | Francisco Faria | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.6-9.3 | 9.4-7.6 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 58.8% | 66.4% |
| Break % | 28.9% | 53.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
18.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Diogo Morais
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Dominique Rolland M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Porto |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Porto |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Reece Falck M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-9 | L |
| 13/11 | David Fox UTR Pro Malibu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/11 | Hugh Winter UTR Pro Malibu · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/11 | Iiro Vasa UTR Pro Malibu · Hard |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 08/09 | Kazuki Nishiwaki ITF M25 Bali · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/09 | Max Basing ITF M25 Bali · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 03/09 | Eric Tripathi ITF M25 Bali · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
Francisco Faria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Samuel De Felipe Garcia M15 Castelo Branco |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Porto |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Kevin Edengren M25 Porto |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 13/05 | Maksim Shin M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Alex Solonenko M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/05 | Iosif Shalmiev M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 07/05 | Francisco Rocha M25 Loule · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Fares Zakaria M25 Loule · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/05 | Enrique Collar M25 Loule · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 27/04 | Thomas Fancutt M25 Quinta do Lago · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Diogo Morais vs Francisco Faria?
Our model gives 56% to Diogo Morais, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.