Tennis · M15 Gubbio · 14/07, 16:30
Prediction: Marcello Serafini vs Gian Marco Ortenzi
Prediction summary
Winner
Marcello Serafini
Gian Marco Ortenzi
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marcello Serafini
2-8 (W-L)
Gian Marco Ortenzi
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marcello Serafini 1490 · Gian Marco Ortenzi 1547
| Marcello Serafini | Gian Marco Ortenzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gian Marco Ortenzi (rating 1490 vs 1547).
- Gian Marco Ortenzi is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Marcello Serafini makes many double faults (5.2/match).
Statistics
| Marcello Serafini | Gian Marco Ortenzi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.6 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-13.4 | 11.7-9 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 5.2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 45.3% | 49.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marcello Serafini
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Leonardo Rossi M15 Lodz |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Louis Larue M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 23/06 | Henry Bernet M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Manuel Mazza M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 04/06 | Alberto Barroso Campos M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Yacoub Makzoume M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 27/05 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/05 | Seydina Andre M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Gian Marco Ortenzi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Daniele Minighini M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/06 | Georgii Kravchenko M25 Milano · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Nicola Rispoli M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 15/06 | Leonardo Iemmi M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/06 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Antonio Caruso M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Franco Ribero M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-7 | W |
| 08/06 | Matteo Trombini M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/05 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Cosimo Banti M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marcello Serafini vs Gian Marco Ortenzi?
Our model gives 54% to Gian Marco Ortenzi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.