Tennis · Challenger Cordenons · 15/07, 10:00
Prediction: Stefano Napolitano vs Alex Barrena
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefano Napolitano
Alex Barrena
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Stefano Napolitano
7-3 (W-L)
Alex Barrena
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano Napolitano 1506 · Alex Barrena 1458
| Stefano Napolitano | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stefano Napolitano (rating 1506 vs 1458).
Statistics
| Stefano Napolitano | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 0.8-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.7 | 10.8-12.8 |
| Aces | 10.7 | 6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 61% |
| Break % | 28.5% | 33.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano Napolitano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Billy Harris Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 30/05 | Edward Winter Challenger Centurion · Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Philip Henning Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Alec Beckley Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/05 | Stefan Vujic Challenger Centurion · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/05 | Alejandro Moro Canas French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 11/05 | Jakub Paul Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/04 | James Duckworth Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
Alex Barrena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Oleg Prihodko Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Timofey Skatov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 18/05 | Alexis Galarneau French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/05 | August Holmgren Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano Napolitano vs Alex Barrena?
Our model gives 55% to Stefano Napolitano, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.