Tennis · M15 Gubbio · 15/07, 10:00
Prediction: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Michele Mecarelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Gabriele Maria Noce
Michele Mecarelli
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Gabriele Maria Noce
7-3 (W-L)
Michele Mecarelli
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gabriele Maria Noce 1495 · Michele Mecarelli 1437
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Michele Mecarelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gabriele Maria Noce (rating 1495 vs 1437).
Statistics
| Gabriele Maria Noce | Michele Mecarelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-10.6 | 9.7-11.9 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 61.6% | 57.2% |
| Break % | 49.6% | 37.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gabriele Maria Noce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Liege · Clay |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jakub Nicod M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Stijn Paardekooper M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Dax Donders M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Brian Bozemoj M15 Kamen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/06 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Savva Rybkin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 18/06 | Milan Ristov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 17/06 | Rocco Valente M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 04/06 | Calvin Mueller M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
Michele Mecarelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Matei Florin Breazu M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Oleksandr Ovcharenko M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 14/06 | Jakub Paul Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Gianmarco Ferrari M25 Grado · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 13/05 | Andrea Guerrieri M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-1 | 0-6 | L |
| 11/05 | Petros Tsitsipas M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/05 | Arthur Nagel M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Lorenzo Berto M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
1-1 | 12-15 | L |
| 06/05 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gabriele Maria Noce vs Michele Mecarelli?
Our model gives 50% to Gabriele Maria Noce, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.