Tennis · M15 Gubbio · 14/07, 12:00
Prediction: Matteo Sciahbasi vs Niccolo Ciavarella
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Sciahbasi
Niccolo Ciavarella
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Sciahbasi
4-6 (W-L)
Niccolo Ciavarella
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Sciahbasi 1488 · Niccolo Ciavarella 1406
| Matteo Sciahbasi | Niccolo Ciavarella | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matteo Sciahbasi (rating 1488 vs 1406).
- Matteo Sciahbasi is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matteo Sciahbasi | Niccolo Ciavarella | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 0.5-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.9 | 7.2-11.6 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 63.4% | 60.7% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Sciahbasi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Giovanni Oradini Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Pietro Romeo Scomparin M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Giulio Perego M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Maxence Rivet M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Pietro Marino M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 08/06 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/06 | Massimo Giunta M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/06 | Daniele Rapagnetta M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 29/05 | Oliver Crawford M25 Grado · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 28/05 | Manuel Mazza M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Niccolo Ciavarella
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Federico Arnaboldi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Joaquin Guilleme M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Antonio Caruso M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Grado · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Alessandro Coccioli M25 Grado · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/05 | Radu Mihai Papoe M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Filip Jeff Planinsek M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/05 | Luca Parenti M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Sciahbasi vs Niccolo Ciavarella?
Our model gives 57% to Matteo Sciahbasi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.