Tennis · M15 Gubbio · 15/07, 10:00
Prediction: Martin Van Der Meerschen vs Jacopo Bilardo
Prediction summary
Winner
Martin Van Der Meerschen
Jacopo Bilardo
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Martin Van Der Meerschen
4-6 (W-L)
Jacopo Bilardo
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Martin Van Der Meerschen 1555 · Jacopo Bilardo 1445
| Martin Van Der Meerschen | Jacopo Bilardo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Martin Van Der Meerschen (rating 1555 vs 1445).
- Martin Van Der Meerschen is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Jacopo Bilardo makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Martin Van Der Meerschen | Jacopo Bilardo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-10.7 | 11.7-12.3 |
| Aces | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 42% | 41.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Martin Van Der Meerschen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Madhwin Kamath Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/05 | Lorenzo Gagliardo M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 23/05 | Kristijan Juhas M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/05 | Maties Torres Ramis M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 20/05 | Milos Mikovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/05 | Emilien Demanet M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 29/04 | Sander Jong M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 08/04 | Florent Bax M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 07/04 | Daniele Rapagnetta M25 Santa Margherita · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Jacopo Bilardo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Viktor Durasovic M25 Milano · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 11/06 | Gabriele Piraino M15 Messina · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Giorgio Tabacco M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 08/06 | Daniel Bagnolini M15 Messina · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 27/05 | Matyas Fuele M15 Brcko · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Trisztan Gubi M15 Doboj · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 14/05 | Gabriele Piraino M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 12/05 | Lorenzo Angelini M25 Reggio Emilia · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Martin Van Der Meerschen vs Jacopo Bilardo?
Our model gives 57% to Martin Van Der Meerschen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.