Tennis · W35 Sao Paulo · 13/07, 15:30
Prediction: Chiara Di Genova vs Maria Paulina Perez Garcia
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Prediction summary
Winner
Chiara Di Genova
Maria Paulina Perez Garcia
Estimated games
19.3
Recent form · 10 last
Chiara Di Genova
7-3 (W-L)
Maria Paulina Perez Garcia
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Chiara Di Genova
1–1
Maria Paulina Perez Garcia
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chiara Di Genova 1513 · Maria Paulina Perez Garcia 1417
| Chiara Di Genova | Maria Paulina Perez Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chiara Di Genova (rating 1513 vs 1417).
- Chiara Di Genova is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Chiara Di Genova | Maria Paulina Perez Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 0.4-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-9 | 6.3-10.8 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 56.8% | 50.1% |
| Break % | 60% | 52.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.3
H2H · Chiara Di Genova 1 – 1 Maria Paulina Perez Garcia (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chiara Di Genova 1–1 Maria Paulina Perez Garcia
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/24 ITF W35 Chacabuco | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/01/23 ITF W25 Buenos Aires | 1-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chiara Di Genova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez W15 Rio Claro |
1-2 | 7-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Luana Plaza W15 Rio Claro |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Catarina M I Melleiro Junior W15 Rio Claro |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 06/07 | Mariana De Jesus Ribeiro Silveira W15 Rio Claro |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Antonia Rivera W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Valentina Mediorreal Arias W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Natalia Trigosso W15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-1 | 10-6 | W |
| 17/06 | Emily Zornada W15 Luque · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Natalia Trigosso W15 Luque · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/06 | Luiza Fullana W35 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Maria Paulina Perez Garcia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Maria F Herazo Gonzalez W15 Rio Claro |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Lourdes Ayala W15 Rio Claro |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Enola Chiesa W35 Bol · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/03 | Maria F Herazo Gonzalez W35 Huamantla · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 04/03 | Jessica Hinojosa Gomez W15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/10 | Yuliana Lizarazo WTA Cali · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 22/10 | Yuliana Lizarazo ITF W50 Ibague |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/10 | Carolina Alves WTA Rio De Janeiro · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 09/10 | Berta Bonardi ITF W15 Sao Joao da Boa Vista |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/10 | Catarina M I Melleiro Junior ITF W15 Sao Joao da Boa Vista |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chiara Di Genova vs Maria Paulina Perez Garcia?
Our model gives 64% to Chiara Di Genova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.