Tennis · Challenger Bunschoten · 13/07, 11:00
Prediction: Mateus Alves vs Jan Kumstat
Prediction summary
Winner
Mateus Alves
Jan Kumstat
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Mateus Alves
8-2 (W-L)
Jan Kumstat
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mateus Alves 1609 · Jan Kumstat 1497
| Mateus Alves | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mateus Alves (rating 1609 vs 1497).
- Jan Kumstat dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 49.2% break avg.
- Mateus Alves is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mateus Alves | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 90% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.3 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-7.4 | 11.6-12.1 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 8.3 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.8% | 73% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 49.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mateus Alves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Fons Van Sambeek Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/06 | Nick Hardt M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Livas Eduardo De Carvalho Damazio M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Nicolas Villalon M25 Cuiaba · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/05 | Gustavo Ribeiro de Almeida M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/05 | Herman Hoeyeraal M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 22/05 | Ezequiel Monferrer M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/05 | Ryan Augusto Dos Santos M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 20/05 | Victor Hugo Remondy Pagotto M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/05 | Luis Felipe Miguel M15 Maringa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Jan Kumstat
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/06 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Duje Markovina M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Kai Wehnelt M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Corentin Denolly M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/06 | Georgii Kravchenko M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/06 | Marvin Moeller M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Matteo Covato M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 01/06 | Oleg Prihodko Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mateus Alves vs Jan Kumstat?
Our model gives 60% to Mateus Alves, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.