Tennis · Challenger Bunschoten · 17/07, 15:00
Prediction: Jan Kumstat vs Thijs Boogaard
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan Kumstat
Thijs Boogaard
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Jan Kumstat
6-4 (W-L)
Thijs Boogaard
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jan Kumstat
1–0
Thijs Boogaard
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Kumstat 1544 · Thijs Boogaard 1583
| Jan Kumstat | Thijs Boogaard | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jan Kumstat dominates on serve: 9.7 aces and 57.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Jan Kumstat 1–0 Thijs Boogaard (1).
- Note: Thijs Boogaard makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Jan Kumstat | Thijs Boogaard | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.8-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.9 | 14.4-12.5 |
| Aces | 9.7 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 4.2 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 57.1% | 38% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
H2H · Jan Kumstat 1 – 0 Thijs Boogaard (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jan Kumstat 1–0 Thijs Boogaard
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 M15 Heraklion | 2-1 | 11-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Kumstat
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Florian Broska Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 14/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Mateus Alves Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/07 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/06 | Pavel Lagutin Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Duje Markovina M25 Zagreb · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Kai Wehnelt M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Corentin Denolly M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/06 | Georgii Kravchenko M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 12/06 | Marvin Moeller M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Thijs Boogaard
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 21/06 | Tiago Torres M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 20/06 | Fabrizio Andaloro M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/06 | Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 18/06 | Patrick Schoen M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Goncalo Marques M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 10/06 | Yibing Wu ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 15/05 | Aaron Funk M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 14/05 | Ali Habib M25 Hurghada · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Kumstat vs Thijs Boogaard?
Our model gives 52% to Jan Kumstat, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.