Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 12/07, 14:00
Prediction: Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Jan Choinski
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jan Choinski
7-3 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Choinski 1567 · Hugo Gaston 1546
| Jan Choinski | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jan Choinski dominates on serve: 8.9 aces and 42.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Jan Choinski | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.9 | 1.7-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.3-12.1 | 14.8-13.4 |
| Aces | 8.9 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 74.3% | 72.4% |
| Break % | 42.6% | 39.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Choinski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Vit Kopriva Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Felix Gill ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/06 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 10/07 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Federico Cina Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Lautaro Midon Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Felix Gill Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 28/05 | Francisco Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 13-20 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Choinski vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 55% to Jan Choinski, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.