Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 11/07, 11:00
Prediction: Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Hugo Gaston
Prediction summary
Winner
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Hugo Gaston
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Facundo Diaz Acosta
6-4 (W-L)
Hugo Gaston
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Facundo Diaz Acosta
2–1
Hugo Gaston
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Facundo Diaz Acosta 1602 · Hugo Gaston 1554
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Facundo Diaz Acosta (rating 1602 vs 1554).
- Head-to-head: Facundo Diaz Acosta 2–1 Hugo Gaston (3).
Statistics
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Hugo Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 89% (9) | 80% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-8.9 | 15.2-13.3 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.1% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 38% | 39.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
H2H · Facundo Diaz Acosta 2 – 1 Hugo Gaston (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Facundo Diaz Acosta 2–1 Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/24 US Open | 3-0 | 18-7 | W |
| 16/07/24 ATP Hamburg | 1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 08/03/23 Challenger Santiago | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Facundo Diaz Acosta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/07 | Daniele Rapagnetta Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Alexis Galarneau Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Hugo Gaston
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Federico Cina Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Lautaro Midon Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Felix Gill Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 28/05 | Francisco Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Gael Monfils French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 23-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model gives 58% to Facundo Diaz Acosta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.