Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 10/07, 14:20
Prediction: Hugo Gaston vs Marvin Moeller
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Marvin Moeller; the market gives 71% to Hugo Gaston (odds 1.33).
Recent form leaves Hugo Gaston with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Marvin Moeller has piled up 8-2 in the same span.
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Gaston 1527 · Marvin Moeller 1617
| Hugo Gaston | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marvin Moeller (rating 1527 vs 1617).
- Marvin Moeller is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Hugo Gaston | Marvin Moeller | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.5 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.5-14.3 | 13-9.6 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 52.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Andrey Chepelev Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 7-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Moez Echargui Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-14 | W |
| 24/06 | Federico Cina Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Lautaro Midon Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Felix Gill Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 28/05 | Francisco Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Gael Monfils French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 23-17 | W |
| 19/05 | Karen Khachanov ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Marvin Moeller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Benito Sanchez Martinez Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 05/07 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/07 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/07 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 01/07 | Mickael Kaouk Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Dylan Dietrich M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Tom Zeuch M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 25/06 | David Tixhon M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 24/06 | Leo Deflandre M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Gaston vs Marvin Moeller?
Our model gives 56% to Hugo Gaston, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.