Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 10/07, 11:00
Prediction: Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Niels McDonald
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Facundo Diaz Acosta; the market gives 75% to Facundo Diaz Acosta (odds 1.25).
On recent form, Facundo Diaz Acosta is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Niels McDonald 7-3 over theirs.
67%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Facundo Diaz Acosta 1603 · Niels McDonald 1557
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Facundo Diaz Acosta (rating 1603 vs 1557).
Statistics
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 89% (9) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-9.5 | 12.1-8.7 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 2 |
| Double faults | 1.4 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/07 | Daniele Rapagnetta Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Alexis Galarneau Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
Niels McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 14/06 | Sandro Kopp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/06 | Aristotelis Thanos M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Anton Shepp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/06 | Eric Vanshelboim M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Niels McDonald?
Our model gives 67% to Facundo Diaz Acosta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.