Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 10/07, 11:00
Prediction: Jan Choinski vs Diego Dedura-Palomero
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Jan Choinski; the market gives 54% to Jan Choinski (odds 1.73).
Recent form leaves Jan Choinski with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Diego Dedura-Palomero has piled up 6-4 in the same span.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jan Choinski 1545 · Diego Dedura-Palomero 1519
| Jan Choinski | Diego Dedura-Palomero | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jan Choinski dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 49.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Jan Choinski | Diego Dedura-Palomero | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 71% (7) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.1 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.7-13.5 | 11.2-11.3 |
| Aces | 9.3 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 65.4% |
| Break % | 49.5% | 52.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jan Choinski
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Max Hans Rehberg Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Vit Kopriva Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Felix Gill ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 22/06 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 21/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 20/06 | Yibing Wu ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Diego Dedura-Palomero
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Clement Tabur Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Milan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-19 | L |
| 29/06 | Miguel Damas Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Sergio Callejon Hernando M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Joaquin Guilleme M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Alexandre Reco M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | James Duckworth ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Luka Mikrut Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jan Choinski vs Diego Dedura-Palomero?
Our model gives 54% to Jan Choinski, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.