Tennis · Challenger Liege · 11/07, 10:00
Prediction: Lorenzo Giustino vs Miguel Damas
Prediction summary
Winner
Lorenzo Giustino
Miguel Damas
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Lorenzo Giustino
5-5 (W-L)
Miguel Damas
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Lorenzo Giustino
4–0
Miguel Damas
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lorenzo Giustino 1561 · Miguel Damas 1472
| Lorenzo Giustino | Miguel Damas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Giustino (rating 1561 vs 1472).
- Head-to-head: Lorenzo Giustino 4–0 Miguel Damas (4).
Statistics
| Lorenzo Giustino | Miguel Damas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-11.1 | 11.3-11.7 |
| Aces | 4 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67% | 63.3% |
| Break % | 83.3% | 57.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Lorenzo Giustino 4 – 0 Miguel Damas (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lorenzo Giustino 4–0 Miguel Damas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/26 Challenger Tenerife | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/11/25 Challenger Montemar | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/08/25 ITF M25 Gijon | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/05/25 M25 Vic | 2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lorenzo Giustino
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Jack Loge Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Emilien Demanet Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 04/07 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Igor Marcondes Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Marko Topo Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Svyatoslav Gulin Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 22/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Miguel Damas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 06/07 | Harold Huens Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/06 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Damir Dzumhur Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 25/05 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lorenzo Giustino vs Miguel Damas?
Our model gives 62% to Lorenzo Giustino, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.