Tennis · Challenger Liege · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Gauthier Onclin vs Florian Broska
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Florian Broska; the market gives 71% to Gauthier Onclin (odds 1.33).
Over their last 10 matches, Gauthier Onclin sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Florian Broska arrives on a 7-3 run.
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gauthier Onclin 1517 · Florian Broska 1557
| Gauthier Onclin | Florian Broska | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Florian Broska (rating 1517 vs 1557).
- Note: Gauthier Onclin makes many double faults (4.6/match).
Statistics
| Gauthier Onclin | Florian Broska | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-11.6 | 12.7-9.2 |
| Aces | 1 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 72.8% | 68.9% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gauthier Onclin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Shintaro Mochizuki Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Lorenzo Giustino Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 10/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/06 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/06 | Orlando Luz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 26/05 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
Florian Broska
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Kai Wehnelt Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/07 | Reda Bennani M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 02/07 | Lorenzo Comino M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Matthieu Chambonniere M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Yassine Dlimi M25 Tanger · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/06 | Nicolas Kobelt M25 Tanger · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Parth Aggarwal M25 Tanger · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 16/06 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 15/06 | Daniel Siniakov Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gauthier Onclin vs Florian Broska?
Our model gives 59% to Gauthier Onclin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.