Tennis · Challenger Liege · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Federico Coria vs Guy Den Ouden
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Guy Den Ouden; the market gives 63% to Guy Den Ouden (odds 1.50).
On recent form, Federico Coria is 4-6 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Guy Den Ouden 6-4 over theirs.
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Coria 1474 · Guy Den Ouden 1509
| Federico Coria | Guy Den Ouden | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Federico Coria | Guy Den Ouden | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 38% (8) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.4 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-12.3 | 11.4-10.9 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 61.3% | 64.7% |
| Break % | 39.9% | 39.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Coria
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Oliver Bonding Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/06 | Nicolas Kicker Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Andrea Collarini Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 10/06 | Segundo Goity Zapico Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 18/05 | Vilius Gaubas French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/04 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/04 | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 10/02 | Matteo Berrettini ATP Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 07/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Guy Den Ouden
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Liege · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Yi Zhou Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 05/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 03/06 | Matej Dodig Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 01/06 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 18/05 | Dalibor Svrcina French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 13/05 | Dali Blanch Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Dan Added Challenger Tunis · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/05 | August Holmgren Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Coria vs Guy Den Ouden?
Our model gives 59% to Guy Den Ouden, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.