Tennis · M25 The Hague · 10/07, 10:00
Prediction: Stijn Paardekooper vs Yannik Kelm
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 60% to Yannik Kelm; the market gives 77% to Yannik Kelm (odds 1.22).
Over their last 10 matches, Stijn Paardekooper sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Yannik Kelm arrives on a 9-1 run.
69%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stijn Paardekooper 1535 · Yannik Kelm 1606
| Stijn Paardekooper | Yannik Kelm | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 23% | 77% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yannik Kelm (rating 1535 vs 1606).
Statistics
| Stijn Paardekooper | Yannik Kelm | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.9-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-9.6 | 12.8-7.6 |
| Aces | 4.2 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 64.5% | 69.8% |
| Break % | 38.3% | 49.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stijn Paardekooper
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Jay Clarke M25 The Hague |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 08/07 | Mateja Stanisavljevic M25 The Hague |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Gabriele Maria Noce M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/07 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Jesse De Jager M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Mac Visser M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/05 | Jiri Vesely UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/05 | Marcel Zielinski UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-1 | 15-7 | W |
| 22/05 | Tim Hammes UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/05 | Moos Van Donk UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Yannik Kelm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Daniel Verbeek M25 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Dax Donders M25 The Hague |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Jannik Opitz M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Mika Petkovic M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Emilien Demanet M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Niklas Schell M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Lenn Luemkemann M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/06 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Jakub Filip M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Piet Steveker M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stijn Paardekooper vs Yannik Kelm?
Our model gives 69% to Yannik Kelm, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.