Tennis · M25 The Hague · 09/07, 13:30
Prediction: Daniel Verbeek vs Yannik Kelm
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 63% to Yannik Kelm; the market gives 78% to Yannik Kelm (odds 1.20).
On recent form, Daniel Verbeek is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Yannik Kelm 9-1 over theirs.
71%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Verbeek 1540 · Yannik Kelm 1631
| Daniel Verbeek | Yannik Kelm | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yannik Kelm (rating 1540 vs 1631).
Statistics
| Daniel Verbeek | Yannik Kelm | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.9-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.4-6.9 | 12.8-7.7 |
| Aces | 1 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 56.1% | 46.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Verbeek
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Jim Hendrikx M25 The Hague |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
| 06/07 | Giammarco Gandolfi M25 The Hague |
2-1 | 10-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Louis Tessa M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 16/06 | Markel Garay Eceolaza M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/06 | Alex Martinez Sanz M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Ramon Del Olmo Diaz M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 18/05 | Hugo Maurice M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 17/05 | Louis Boilevin M25 Deauville · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 28/04 | Pieter De Lange M15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Yannik Kelm
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Dax Donders M25 The Hague |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Jannik Opitz M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/07 | Mika Petkovic M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Emilien Demanet M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Niklas Schell M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Lenn Luemkemann M25 Nivelles · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/06 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 18/06 | Jakub Filip M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Piet Steveker M15 Saarlouis · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Attila Dominik Boros M15 Nyiregyhaza · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Verbeek vs Yannik Kelm?
Our model gives 71% to Yannik Kelm, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.