Tennis · M25 The Hague · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Sander Jong vs Eero Vasa
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Sander Jong; the market gives 56% to Sander Jong (odds 1.67).
Recent form leaves Sander Jong with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Eero Vasa has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sander Jong 1528 · Eero Vasa 1487
| Sander Jong | Eero Vasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sander Jong (rating 1528 vs 1487).
Statistics
| Sander Jong | Eero Vasa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.2 | 11.6-12 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 66.3% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sander Jong
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Jeremy Schifris M25 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/06 | Jesse De Jager M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Manvydas Balciunas M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/06 | Sammy Guinau M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/06 | James McCabe ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Shintaro Mochizuki ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 02/06 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 01/06 | Lasse Poertner Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/05 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 26/05 | Marvin Moeller M25 Troisdorf · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
Eero Vasa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Stan Put M25 The Hague |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/07 | Sean Cuenin M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Amine Jamji M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Yassine Smiej M25 Rabat · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 23/06 | Manas Manoj Dhamne Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 31/05 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 24/05 | Giorgio Tabacco Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/05 | Jaime Faria Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 12/05 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sander Jong vs Eero Vasa?
Our model gives 56% to Sander Jong, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.