Tennis · Wimbledon WD · 10/07, 16:00
Prediction: Guo/Mladenovic vs Jiang/Xu
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Guo/Mladenovic; the market gives 65% to Guo/Mladenovic (odds 1.44).
Over their last 10 matches, Guo/Mladenovic sits at 8-2 (W-L), while Jiang/Xu arrives on a 2-8 run.
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Guo/Mladenovic 1584 · Jiang/Xu 1500
| Guo/Mladenovic | Jiang/Xu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guo/Mladenovic (rating 1584 vs 1500).
- Guo/Mladenovic is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Guo/Mladenovic makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Guo/Mladenovic | Jiang/Xu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 86% (7) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.5 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-9.7 | 10.4-13.2 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 64.6% |
| Break % | 53.3% | 38.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guo/Mladenovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Siniakova/Townsend Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 06/07 | Detiuc/Khromacheva Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 04/07 | Alexandrova/Joint Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/07 | Burrage/Stojsavljevic Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Mihalikova/Nicholls WTA Queens WD · Grass |
1-2 | 21-23 | L |
| 10/06 | Hunter/Zhang WTA Queens WD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Muhammad/Stollar WTA Queens WD · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Aoyama/Liang French Open WD · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Mertens/Zhang French Open WD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/05 | Hsieh/Wang French Open WD · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Jiang/Xu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Neel/Olmos Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 06/07 | Siegemund/Zvonareva Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 04/07 | Kichenok/Krawczyk Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Golubic/Valentova Wimbledon WD · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 22/06 | Mihalikova/Nicholls WTA Bad Homburg WD · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Mihalikova/Nicholls WTA Bad Homburg WD · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Errani/Melichar-Martinez WTA Berlin WD · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Detiuc/Khromacheva WTA Hertogenbosch WD · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 27/05 | Kalinina/Yastremska French Open WD · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Alexandrova/Danilina WTA Strasbourg WD · Clay |
1-2 | 17-22 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guo/Mladenovic vs Jiang/Xu?
Our model gives 63% to Guo/Mladenovic, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.