Prediction: Karl Poling vs Maxime St-Hilaire
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 54% to Maxime St-Hilaire; the market gives 77% to Karl Poling (odds 1.22).
Recent form leaves Karl Poling with 6 wins and 4 losses over 10 games; Maxime St-Hilaire has piled up 9-1 in the same span.
63%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karl Poling 1540 · Maxime St-Hilaire 1567
| Karl Poling | Maxime St-Hilaire | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Karl Poling | Maxime St-Hilaire | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-11.8 | 12.7-8.6 |
| Aces | 2 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.5% | 65.8% |
| Break % | 37% | 47.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karl Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Alexander Rozin M25 Laval |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 28/06 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Dmitry Popko M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 09/06 | James Trotter M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 04/06 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 03/06 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Olaf Pieczkowski Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 01/06 | Jay Friend Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Maxime St-Hilaire
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Alexandre Bergeron M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/07 | Jacob Rouleau-Mailly M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Lucas Nunez M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/04 | Andreja Petrovic M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 28/04 | Ryan Cozad M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-5 | W |
| 10/03 | Justin Roberts M15 Montreal |
2-0 | 11-8 | W |
| 17/01 | Ian Mayew UTR Pro Chapel Hill · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/01 | Vladislav Melnic UTR Pro Chapel Hill · Hard |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 14/01 | Ryan Corcoran UTR Pro Chapel Hill · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/01 | Kase Schinnerer UTR Pro Chapel Hill · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karl Poling vs Maxime St-Hilaire?
Our model gives 63% to Karl Poling, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.