Prediction: Karl Poling vs Alexander Rozin
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Alexander Rozin; the market gives 56% to Alexander Rozin (odds 1.67).
Over their last 10 matches, Karl Poling sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Alexander Rozin arrives on a 7-3 run.
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karl Poling 1524 · Alexander Rozin 1571
| Karl Poling | Alexander Rozin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Rozin (rating 1524 vs 1571).
Statistics
| Karl Poling | Alexander Rozin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-12.2 | 12.3-9.2 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 3 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 62% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 38.3% | 34.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karl Poling
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Dmitry Popko M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 09/06 | James Trotter M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 04/06 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 03/06 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Olaf Pieczkowski Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 01/06 | Jay Friend Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 24/05 | Jay Friend Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Alexander Rozin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Spencer Johnson M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Jack Satterfield M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Vignesh Gogineni M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Benjamin O'Connell M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 24/06 | Emon Van Loben Sels M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/06 | Benjamin O'Connell M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 16/06 | Matic Kriznik M15 Irvine · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Kaylan Bigun M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Maxwell Exsted M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/06 | Karl Kazuma Lee M15 Los Angeles · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Karl Poling vs Alexander Rozin?
Our model gives 56% to Alexander Rozin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.