Prediction: Liam Draxl vs Nicolas Arseneault
Our model (Elo on hard, opponent-adjusted) gives 62% to Liam Draxl; the market gives 81% to Liam Draxl (odds 1.14).
Over their last 10 matches, Liam Draxl sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Nicolas Arseneault arrives on a 5-5 run.
73%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1528 · Nicolas Arseneault 1444
| Liam Draxl | Nicolas Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liam Draxl (rating 1528 vs 1444).
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | Nicolas Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 22% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-10.5 | 9.7-11.9 |
| Aces | 17.5 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 64% |
| Break % | 34.3% | 35.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Stephen Slocombe M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Remy Bertola Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/06 | Adam Walton Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Braden Shick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 03/06 | Aidan Kim Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Jesper De Jong French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 18/05 | Ilia Simakin French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 11/05 | Emilio Nava Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Nicolas Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Benjamin Willwerth M25 Laval |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Christian Langmo M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Jonah Braswell M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Thanaphat Boosarawongse M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 03/06 | Oliver Bonding M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 24/05 | Henry Searle Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/01 | Luca Pow M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-11 | L |
| 06/01 | Alex Rybakov M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/11 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 05/11 | Mikael Arseneault ITF M25 Montreal · Hard |
0-1 | 6-7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs Nicolas Arseneault?
Our model gives 73% to Liam Draxl, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.