Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 10/07, 14:00
Prediction: Raul Brancaccio vs Matej Dodig
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Matej Dodig; the market gives 56% to Matej Dodig (odds 1.67).
Over their last 10 matches, Raul Brancaccio sits at 3-7 (W-L), while Matej Dodig arrives on a 2-8 run.
54%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Raul Brancaccio 1490 · Matej Dodig 1510
| Raul Brancaccio | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Raul Brancaccio | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-13.3 | 12-13.8 |
| Aces | 4 | 15.1 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 71.5% |
| Break % | 34% | 36% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Raul Brancaccio
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Andrea Pellegrino Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 06/07 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Arthur Gea Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 10/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 25/05 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
Matej Dodig
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/07 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 09/06 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 01/06 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 20/05 | Hugo Dellien French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Yi Zhou French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 13/05 | August Holmgren Challenger Zagreb · Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Raul Brancaccio vs Matej Dodig?
Our model gives 54% to Matej Dodig, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.