Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 10/07, 14:00
Prediction: Lukas Neumayer vs Henri Squire
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 53% to Lukas Neumayer; the market gives 65% to Lukas Neumayer (odds 1.44).
Over their last 10 matches, Lukas Neumayer sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Henri Squire arrives on a 5-5 run.
60%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lukas Neumayer 1566 · Henri Squire 1542
| Lukas Neumayer | Henri Squire | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Henri Squire makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| Lukas Neumayer | Henri Squire | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-10.4 | 11.2-11.5 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 2 | 5.8 |
| 1st serve % | 68.4% | 69.2% |
| Break % | 37.4% | 36.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Lukas Neumayer 1 – 1 Henri Squire (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lukas Neumayer 1–1 Henri Squire
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/23 ITF M25 Prague | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08/22 Challenger Prague | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lukas Neumayer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Florian Broska Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 08/06 | Taro Daniel Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Michal Krajci Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/05 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/05 | Remy Bertola Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/05 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Henri Squire
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 06/07 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Gilles Arnaud Bailly Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 22/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/06 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Marc Polmans Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lukas Neumayer vs Henri Squire?
Our model gives 60% to Lukas Neumayer, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.