Tennis · M25 The Hague · 09/07, 11:00
Prediction: Jay Clarke vs Stijn Paardekooper
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Stijn Paardekooper; the market gives 87% to Jay Clarke (odds 1.08).
Recent form leaves Jay Clarke with 9 wins and 1 losses over 10 games; Stijn Paardekooper has piled up 5-5 in the same span.
67%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jay Clarke 1497 · Stijn Paardekooper 1542
| Jay Clarke | Stijn Paardekooper | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stijn Paardekooper (rating 1497 vs 1542).
- Jay Clarke dominates on serve: 8.2 aces and 61.7% break avg.
- Note: Jay Clarke makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Jay Clarke | Stijn Paardekooper | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 25% (4) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-11 | 12.1-8.8 |
| Aces | 8.2 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 63% |
| Break % | 61.7% | 39.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jay Clarke
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Mac Visser M25 The Hague |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 13/06 | Daniel Masur Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Giorgio Tabacco M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 02/06 | Iannis Miletich M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 26/05 | Milos Karol Challenger Kosice · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Thomas Faurel French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Stijn Paardekooper
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Mateja Stanisavljevic M25 The Hague |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Gabriele Maria Noce M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 01/07 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/06 | Jesse De Jager M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Mac Visser M15 Alkmaar · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/05 | Jiri Vesely UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/05 | Marcel Zielinski UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-1 | 15-7 | W |
| 22/05 | Tim Hammes UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/05 | Moos Van Donk UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/05 | Bas Bouwman UTR Pro Ahaus · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jay Clarke vs Stijn Paardekooper?
Our model gives 67% to Jay Clarke, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.