Tennis · M25 Roda de Bara · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Iliyan Radulov vs Yanki Erel
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 66% to Yanki Erel; the market gives 56% to Yanki Erel (odds 1.67).
Recent form leaves Iliyan Radulov with 4 wins and 6 losses over 10 games; Yanki Erel has piled up 9-1 in the same span.
60%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iliyan Radulov 1482 · Yanki Erel 1594
| Iliyan Radulov | Yanki Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanki Erel (rating 1482 vs 1594).
- Yanki Erel is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Iliyan Radulov | Yanki Erel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 0% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.8-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-11.5 | 12.5-8.2 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 62.1% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 38.2% | 63.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iliyan Radulov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Hamish Stewart M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Leonardo Malgaroli M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/06 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Mariano Kestelboim Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 20/05 | Robert Watzka M25 Mataro · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/05 | Sergi Perez Contri M25 Vic |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Oriol Roca Batalla M25 Vic |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Yanki Erel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Gianluca Carlini M25 Roda de Bara |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 07/07 | Noah Regas M25 Roda de Bara |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Ryo Tabata Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 30/05 | Vadym Ursu M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/05 | Daniil Ostapenkov M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/05 | Maksim Shin M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Kevin Edengren M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/05 | Ids Waterbolk M15 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 21/05 | Semen Pankin M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Kutaisi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iliyan Radulov vs Yanki Erel?
Our model gives 60% to Yanki Erel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.