Tennis · Challenger Trieste · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Maxim Mrva vs Federico Bondioli
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Maxim Mrva; the market gives 58% to Maxim Mrva (odds 1.61).
On recent form, Maxim Mrva is 5-5 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Federico Bondioli 3-7 over theirs.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maxim Mrva 1542 · Federico Bondioli 1478
| Maxim Mrva | Federico Bondioli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maxim Mrva (rating 1542 vs 1478).
Statistics
| Maxim Mrva | Federico Bondioli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-10.7 | 11.5-14.1 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 66.5% | 68.5% |
| Break % | 41.6% | 24.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maxim Mrva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 22/06 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 17/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Akira Santillan Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/06 | Olle Wallin Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Jan Sadzik Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 05/06 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Federico Bondioli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Inaki Montes-De La Torre Challenger Troyes · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Adam Walton ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Alvaro Guillen Meza Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-1 | 19-18 | W |
| 11/06 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 09/06 | Carlo Alberto Caniato Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 28/05 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Kosice · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 26/05 | Karim Bennani Challenger Kosice · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/05 | Petr Nesterov Challenger Cervia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maxim Mrva vs Federico Bondioli?
Our model gives 58% to Maxim Mrva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.