Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Niels McDonald vs Martin Krumich
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Niels McDonald; the market gives 50% to Niels McDonald (odds 1.83).
Over their last 10 matches, Niels McDonald sits at 7-3 (W-L), while Martin Krumich arrives on a 4-6 run.
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Niels McDonald 1579 · Martin Krumich 1546
| Niels McDonald | Martin Krumich | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Martin Krumich makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Niels McDonald | Martin Krumich | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (5) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-8.6 | 13.2-12.7 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.1% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 40.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Niels McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 14/06 | Sandro Kopp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/06 | Aristotelis Thanos M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Anton Shepp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 11/06 | Eric Vanshelboim M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Cruz Hewitt M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Martin Krumich
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 24/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Alan Wazny Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 09/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 07/06 | Viktor Durasovic Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Niels McDonald vs Martin Krumich?
Our model gives 52% to Niels McDonald, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.