Tennis · Challenger Braunschweig · 09/07, 10:00
Prediction: Vilius Gaubas vs Facundo Diaz Acosta
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 64% to Facundo Diaz Acosta; the market gives 61% to Facundo Diaz Acosta (odds 1.53).
On recent form, Vilius Gaubas is 3-7 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Facundo Diaz Acosta 5-5 over theirs.
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vilius Gaubas 1508 · Facundo Diaz Acosta 1607
| Vilius Gaubas | Facundo Diaz Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Facundo Diaz Acosta (rating 1508 vs 1607).
- Facundo Diaz Acosta is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Vilius Gaubas | Facundo Diaz Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.7 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-15.1 | 12.6-10.4 |
| Aces | 9.3 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.2% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 24.8% | 37.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vilius Gaubas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 25/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 24/06 | Henry Searle Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Michael Mmoh Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 09/06 | Miguel Damas Challenger Lyon · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 25/05 | Luca Van Assche French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 17-21 | L |
| 22/05 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/07 | Daniele Rapagnetta Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Alexis Galarneau Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Florian Broska Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vilius Gaubas vs Facundo Diaz Acosta?
Our model gives 62% to Facundo Diaz Acosta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.